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"Midfield War" in the Third and Fourth-tier Real Estate Markets: Preventing Explosive and Stagflation Tests and Regulations

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  • Source: Dongyang Information Network

    Abstract: The rate of housing prices will rise to a certain extent faster than the purchasing power of third- and fourth-tier residents. The third- and fourth-tier cities will digest the property market inventory and the time to restore market demand is also getting longer. How to establish the correct policy guidance direction in the upward cycle The property market on the 3rd and 4th tiers of the Virgin area once again fell into a long-term "stagnation" situation and became the focus of attention in the next two days.

    After many setbacks, Zhang Wenwei (pseudonym) finally succeeded in buying a house in Xi'an High-tech Zone.

    Previously, Zhang Wenwei's family had one house each in Xianyang City and Xixian New District. He told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the house in Xixian New District was purchased in 2010 in Xixian New District, but after the planning and construction started, the purchase price was about 50 yuan / square meter. Over the next few years, "house prices have basically changed this way."

    The turnaround was in the last two days in 2017. At that time, Xi'an house prices were under great pressure , and documents were issued three times in a row to strengthen purchase restrictions. At the time, it was entrusted by Xi'an City, and the household registration was about to be placed in Xi'an New District of Xi'an in November. It will have major favorable policies and become the first choice for the spillover of Xi'an demand. House prices will soon rise. Zhang Wenwei also moved the client's household registration under the name of Xianyang House to Xixian New District and successfully obtained the qualification to buy a house in Xi'an.

    During this period, the average price of Zhang Wenwei's house in Xixian New District rose from 50 yuan / square meter at the time of purchase to nearly 7,000 yuan / square meter. After selling this house and making the down payment, Zhang Wenwei purchased a house with an average price of about 17,000 yuan in the Xi'an High-tech Zone during the Spring Festival of 2018, fulfilling the client's dream of setting up in Xi'an.

    Zhang Wenwei's experience is not unique in the past year. Some researchers described the situation of the property market in the past two days as "big stability and chaos." If the property market is generally stable, there will be some “little chaos” in the third- and fourth-tier property markets, and some hot spots in the third- and fourth-tier cities will face “slashes” after severe adjustments; With the influx of investment demand, the increase in housing prices continues to lead the country; while more third- and fourth-tier cities are affected by factors such as spillover of demand from core cities, accelerated urbanization, and stimulus of shed reform. Ushered in a new round of upward cycles after many years.

    However, it should be noted that the rate of house price rise will be faster than the growth of purchasing power of residents in the third and fourth tiers. The inventory of real estate market will be digested in the third and fourth tier cities, and the time to restore market demand is also getting longer. The correct policy guides the direction, and the third and fourth tier property markets once again fall into a long-term "stagnation" situation, which will become the focus of attention in the next two days.

    "Dragon Dance" Development in the Property Market

    Since 2018, the third- and fourth-tier cities have generally been in an upward cycle.

    At the sales level, in early June, the E-House (Blog) Research Institute issued a statement "House Price Report on China's 100 Cities". The report shows that among the 50 cities monitored by it in May 2018, the average price of new homes increased by eight The cities, Zhangzhou, Jinhua, Putian, Luzhou, Jingdezhen, Xi'an, Haikou , Zhaoqing, Qingdao and Yichang, ranged from 39% to 66%.

    The report pointed out that in the third and fourth tier cities monitored by it, the average new house price in May 2018 reached 10350 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%.

    The enthusiasm of third- and fourth-tier cities is even reflected in the second-hand housing market. Data from the Chinese Medical Association of the Real Estate Industry show that in May the number of cities with second-hand housing prices over 10,000 yuan will rise to 69, of which cities with newly added housing prices exceeding 10,000 yuan will come entirely from third- and fourth-tier cities.

    On the supply side, Wind data shows that in the next two days of 2017 and the first two days of 2018, among the 50 large and medium-sized cities in the country, the land transaction area of third-tier cities was 129 million square meters, which was a year high, a record high in the past four years.

    Not only the land market , according to Huang Zhilong, director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of Suning Financial Research Institute, from January to May this year, the growth rate of new residential housing starts nationwide has risen to 13.2%, and 40 large and medium cities rich in major core cities The growth rate of newly started areas was 5.7%, which indicates that the growth rate of newly started areas in some third- and fourth-tier cities was significantly higher than 13.2%, and it was estimated that it would cost 17.3%. Collectively, the growth rate of housing construction area in 40 core cities was 0.9%, while the growth rate of construction areas in third- and fourth-tier cities outside 40 cities was 3.6%, which was much higher than the 2.5% growth rate of housing construction area in the country.

    In this regard, Gu Yunchang, deputy director of the Housing Policy Expert Committee of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, once used "dragon dancing" to describe 21st Century Economic Herald reporters as third- and fourth-tier cities under the rotation of the property market. He said that currently the leading first-tier cities are still in the market downturn, but the third- and fourth-tier cities at the end of the dragon tail are still in the peak situation that has not yet started to decline.

    The property market in the third and fourth tiers is hot. Against the background of the central government's repeated emphasis on insisting on the unwavering control of real estate, the regulatory policy has just begun to deepen from the first and second tier cities to the third and fourth tier cities.

    Since 2018, two or eight prefecture-level cities and counties have introduced and upgraded restricted sales policies, and one of our cities has introduced and upgraded restricted sales policies.

    According to incomplete statistics from 21st Century Business Herald reporters, since July, there have been third- and fourth-tier cities such as Chengmai, Foshan , Linfen, Kunming, Dali, Xishuangbanna, Tangshan, Zaozhuang, Xichang, and Dachang County, Langfang City, etc. Policy and the best way. On June 28, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other 7 ministries and commissions issued a "Notice on the Advancement of Special Actions to Combat Illegal Activities in the Real Estate Market in Some Cities" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). Included are the locations of third and fourth tier cities such as Lanzhou and Yichang.

    How does the property market in the third and fourth lines go up?

    What kind of factors are driving the upward movement of the "Dragon Tail" on the third and fourth lines?

    Recently, a person from the Ministry of Housing and Construction stated in an internal meeting that for the reasons for the rise in housing prices in the third and fourth tiers, such a simple factor can be summarized in terms of shed reform, monetization and resettlement. If there are many aspects such as currency, finance, finance, population, land, etc. The result of the combined effect of factors.

    Analysts pointed out that in the context of destocking in third- and fourth-tier cities, policies such as shed reform and nearby urbanization have stimulated market demand in the third and fourth tiers and changed the shape of supply and demand. The large-scale layout of first- and second-tier restricted housing enterprises in third- and fourth-tier cities has raised the market price to a certain extent in improving the quality of living. This formed part of the market's bullish expectations. Under the background that prices have generally experienced such a long period of time on the third and fourth tiers, it has in turn stimulated the entry of investment demand and the panic buying of homes that have just been required, which should have been the rapid rise in some areas.

    Among them, the monetization resettlement of shed reform has attracted wide attention recently. The monetization ratio of shed reforms nationwide increased from 9.0% in 2014 to 48.5% in 2016. The higher proportion of monetized resettlement in some areas has released the common demand for house purchases and increased their purchasing power through the funding support of PSL.

    But the marginal utility of policy stimulus is diminishing. Shen Wanhongyuan report pointed out that the national short-term commercial residential inventory level will continue to be at a low level within one month, and it is expected that the shed reform PSL monetization ratio will continue to decline, and the driving force for third- and fourth-tier sales will weaken.

    In addition, changes in home buyers themselves also affect the property market in the third and fourth tiers. On the one hand, with the development of urbanization, third- and fourth-tier cities are becoming the main bearing places for urbanization of migrant workers nearby. According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, in the 10 cities with rising house prices mentioned in the above report, the resident population has been increasing in the past 5 years. Under the entrusted person, part of the investment demand, under the influence of various factors, flocked to third- and fourth-tier cities. The northeast city Dandong's house price increase continues to lead the country, which is considered to be the result of a large amount of investment demand under favorable policies.

    Zhang Hongwei (blog), director of the same policy consulting research center, believes that the decline in the layout of housing enterprises to the third and fourth tiers is also a factor that drives the property market rotation in third and fourth tier cities. Data show that the sales concentration of the top ten housing companies in third- and fourth-tier cities increased from 13% to 25% during 2015-17.

    In common, in addition to changes in the normal market supply relationship, the rise in housing prices in some third- and fourth-tier cities is also due to factors such as artificial speculation and lack of supervision.

    In June, CCTV reported a news survey of some coastal cities in the north. Some locals pointed out to 21st Century Business Herald reporters that early in the year 2107, leaders of the State Council went to the local inspections, which became a reason for some developers to hype "urban development opportunities." Commonly, some foreign real estate speculation groups have just entered the market, but local but Suddenly total expectations of housing price rises suddenly. And when a top five housing company opened in a local project and sold out quickly at a level significantly higher than the local price, Fujin Real Estate started to “sell out”, and the price change began to accelerate.

    In fact, it is not uncommon for cover-up sales to be discouraged. Certain behaviors are extremely common in the property market's rising cycle. They are also the key targets of the crackdown in the new round of regulation. In the above-mentioned "Notice" of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, speculative housing speculation groups such as manipulation of house prices and rents, sale of flats, fabrication of false information, fabrication of false impressions, driving up housing prices, and providing "down payment loans" in violation of regulations were included in the special action. First place.

    Watch out for the longer cycle of the property market in the third and fourth tiers

    Under the background of rising house prices, the shrinking of demand caused by policy control and lack of purchasing power is considered to be the biggest potential risk in the third and fourth tier property markets.

    Ouyang Jie told a 21st Century Business Herald reporter that real estate is not the same as industrial products. Buying is not up or down. When housing prices are rising too fast, investors are the first to enter the market, leading to panic market entry of just-in-demand and improving demand, driving up housing prices. However, land supply could not keep up, and the relationship between supply and demand was reversed, which further accelerated the rise in house prices. However, when the house price rises to a high point, the lack of purchasing power should have cooled the market, and demand will shrink, and the market will be good. However, a large amount of land supply will have a new round of inventory, and house prices will stagnate or even fall.

    Yang Hongxu (weibo blog) told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that roughly speaking, third- and fourth-tier cities need to be divided into two categories, one is to pay close to metropolitan areas such as Beijing and Shanghai, and the other is ordinary third- and fourth-tier cities.

    Under this round of regulation, severe restrictions on purchases have hit the property markets in the third and fourth tiers of Beijing. In the above-mentioned report by the Yiju Research Institute, the cities with the largest year-on-year declines in new house prices were respectively Xianghe, Dachang, Yanjiao, Langfang (urban area), and Gu'an, all of which were near Beijing.

    In early July, 21st Century Business Herald reporters looked on the main roads in the north of Gu'an. Many of the densely distributed intermediary stores have long been empty, and the aunts who used the intermediary stores to hand out flyers on the streets have long disappeared. A local real estate agent told reporters that under the strict restrictions on purchases, Gu'an house prices are close to being cut, and the street where it will take a third of the intermediary stores will be closed, and the transaction volume of her stores will be changed from the monthly before the regulation. A dozen sets, suddenly dropped to one or two per month.

    Analysts pointed out that which local big cities are paying close to the city, it is still necessary to look forward to relying on the spillover demand of first-tier cities to restore their vitality soon after policy adjustments, but what is more worrisome is that it is also common to rise significantly in this round. The subsequent development of the property market in the third and fourth tier cities.

    Then my noteworthy interim report is that housing prices will increase too fast, and the purchasing power of third- and fourth-tier cities will take longer to match housing prices, while third- and fourth-tier cities will digest real estate inventory and take longer to restore market demand.

    Yang Hongxu told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that in 2011, however, the first and second tier cities and the third and fourth tier cities had different house price changes, but the fluctuation cycles were basically the same. However, after 2011, the property markets in third- and fourth-tier cities consolidated for about five years in a downturn before they formed a new outbreak under the stimulation of various policies and the internal environment.

    Commonly, although after the current destocking policy, inventory levels in third- and fourth-tier cities have been relatively low, driven by the enthusiasm of land transfer by local governments and the high turnover operating mode adopted by housing companies in third- and fourth-tier cities. As mentioned earlier, the new housing starts and construction areas in third- and fourth-tier cities have steadily increased, and a large amount of new housing supply is coming.

    With the combination of supply and demand factors, how to better implement policy guidance and how to adjust the policy orientation from the central to the local level have become the focus of attention of all parties.

    On July 13, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that in order to promote the monetization of shed reforms in accordance with local conditions, the shed reform resettlement policy should be timely adjusted in a targeted manner in places where there is a lack of commodity housing inventory and pressure on rising house prices, and more new sheds should be adopted The best way to change resettlement houses; where there is a large inventory of commercial housing, it is necessary to continue to promote the monetization of shed reforms.

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