The real estate market in “light” start in 2017
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- Source: Dongyang Information Network
Summary: The Spring Festival holiday has reduced the number of market launches, the market has been waiting to see more sentiment, policy signals have continued to be released, and a variety of factors have contributed to the start of the Year of the Rooster property market.
The number of market launches during the Spring Festival holiday has decreased, market sentiment has become stronger, and policy signals have continued to be released. A number of factors have contributed to the start of the chicken year property market. The industry generally believes that after experiencing excessive real estate market purchasing power in 2016, the real estate market volume will farewell to high growth this year and return to a stable level. Considering the important role of the real estate industry in "stabilizing growth" in the national economy, housing prices may stabilize at a high level, and all of them will fall sharply. If the risks can be prevented and the bubbles are restrained, the local government's ability to control is also tested.
Investment speculation frustrated, property market starts cold
Public information shows that during the Spring Festival this year, the transaction volume of new homes in Nanjing, Hangzhou, Suzhou and other places shrank, mostly falling to single digits, the lowest value in the same period in the past three years. Among them, there were a total of 31 residential subscriptions in Nanjing, with a turnover of one. Compared with the 52 sets of the Spring Festival holiday last year, the subscription volume fell by nearly 40%. New commercial residential buildings in Shanghai sold 949 square meters, a 71.1% decrease from the Spring Festival during the Year of the Monkey, and the lowest volume since 2011.
The contraction of transactions during the Spring Festival holiday is a typical portrayal of the start of the real estate market this year. According to the data from the Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Resources Committee, in January, the number of first-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen dropped significantly, with a total of 1,652 units, a 23.6% month-on-month decrease. The transaction volume of the first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities, which are the vane of the property market, has shown a general decline. Only 2477 new commercial housing contracts were signed in Beijing's property market, and the number of second-hand residential contracts also fell to 12,880, down 23.8% and 28.9% from the previous month; Guangzhou's residential network signed 6,823, down 12.63% year-on-year, and 42.32% down; There were 413 residential transactions, a decrease of 45.23% from the previous month; Hefei's nine districts sold 1,384 first-hand residential units, a decrease of nearly 50% from the previous month, and a decrease of more than 80% year-on-year;
With the shrinking transaction volume, housing prices in more or less hot cities have loosened. In January, Shenzhen's house prices continued to fall, with an average transaction price of 54931 yuan / square meter, down 0.03% month-on-month; the average transaction price of Guangzhou was 16,970 yuan / square meter, down 0.61% month-on-month.
It is worth mentioning that just entering the market is the main force of the property market turnover in January. In January, the number of small and medium-sized units below 90 square meters in Shenzhen was 1,172, accounting for 71% of the total. In January, Shanghai was the first time outside of the outer ring to take the opportunity to improve its property purchases for the first time. The transaction areas were outer suburbs such as Jinshan and Qingpu. The average transaction prices were all within 40,000 yuan / square meter, compared with 2 other two in the same period last year. There are many projects with transactions. If the form can be made more complete, in addition to just needing to improve, there are high-priced houses with a unit price of more than 70,000 yuan per square meter.
A number of market research institutions believe that this indicates that the proportion of rigid demand and the first home purchase has increased significantly, and investment speculation has been further suppressed.
? "Policy control" "first victory" market wait-and-see mood turned strong
According to industry insiders, there are three main reasons that should lead to the bleak business of the Year of the Rooster: First, the Spring Festival holiday is the traditional off-season sales season, and the public is more busy taking the opportunity to travel with relatives and friends; Second, the property market in 2016 was too hot and overdrawn some markets Purchasing power, the number of pushes around the Spring Festival of the Year of the Rooster significantly reduced; Third, the housing market heat has plummeted since the beginning of this year, and many prospective homebuyers are waiting to see the future housing prices in the hot cities.
Zhongyuan Real Estate Analyst Zhang Dawei believes that, overall, compared with the 2016 Spring Festival policy stimulus, around the 2017 Spring Festival, the market has a stable period under policy pressure. The 2016 data responded to in January also showed that just from last October, the market's enthusiasm has gradually subsided under the control of various places, and the year-on-year growth of many indicators has narrowed.
In fact, under the central tone of the central government's "risk prevention and bubble squeeze", since September last year, more than 20 hot cities across the country have intensively introduced the best control measures. In the fourth quarter of last year, market heat plummeted, and some third-tier and fourth-tier cities Also joined the ranks of regulation. The cold start of the property market is also the result of the "first victory" of policy control. In addition, the local two congresses held in various places in January this year also revealed the signal that "houses are used to live and all are used for speculation." Ensuring that house prices this year have not grown has become a "commitment" made publicly by many city officials.
Compared with the last three days of last year, the mentality of more or less home buyers is quite stable, there is no need to rush to take a shot, and wait and see has become the mainstream of the market. Miss Yang, who was planning to buy a school district house in Yangxun Village, Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, expressed entanglement. Some of the school district houses she liked were more than 80 years old, but the unit price was as high as 70,000 yuan per square meter. "I don't know if I should take a shot. Regulating the current situation, I worry about falling when I buy, and I am afraid of rising if I don't buy." She said that she plans to wait until the two national conferences this year to check the wind direction.
Future transaction volume may continue to shrink
Market participants expect that in 2017, the trend of the deserted trend in the hot market cities will continue for some time.
Zhang Dawei believes that continuous regulation of the property market is the main direction in 2017, and the transaction of new and second-hand housing markets in most cities will hover at low levels. The Central Plains Quotation Index shows that the pressure on the city's higher housing prices has increased, and the Central Plains Manager Index also shows that professional brokers are more calm and cautious about the market outlook. On the whole, residential transaction volume across the country will bid farewell to high growth and return to a relatively stable level.
At the moment, China's monetary policy is shifting from being slightly more lenient to being more “stable and neutral”. The second two working days after the Spring Festival holiday began, the central bank raised the reverse repurchase rate and the SLF (standing loan facility) interest rate, and before the Spring Festival holiday, the MLF (intermediate loan facility) interest rate has also been raised. The industry generally believes that this move raises the cost of funds for bank lending, which in turn will affect the mortgage loan interest rate, which is a further "overweight" of real estate regulation.
Market organizations such as Savills and Albert I Love You Group Market Research believe that under the influence of factors such as higher credit costs, stricter price limit policies, stricter regulatory enforcement, and the expected increase in the supply of self-occupied commercial housing in the future, The real estate market cooling expectations are further clear, and transaction volume will continue to shrink.
"With the continued digestion of previous regulatory policies, housing prices in more or less hot cities have stabilized." Said Dai Yiyi, a professor at the School of Management of Xiamen University, this year's real estate market regulation will continue to control speculation and guide reasonable housing demand. Top priority. Affected by the development cycle, Xiamen's current land supply is still limited. Given the contradiction between supply and demand, housing prices may stabilize in the future.
Yan Yuejin , research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, said that the destocking strategy in 2017 will continue, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities, which will still strengthen policy orientation. For first- and second-tier cities, especially more or less hot cities, the inventory scale is seriously insufficient. If possible, from the perspective of restraining housing prices and meeting the basic housing needs, we still need to actively adopt the best methods to increase land supply, defuse the urban population, and increase the supply of affordable housing.
In the opinion of the Bank of China's chief economist Lian Ping, the purpose of the property market regulation is to "stabilize" rather than "drop", and it is not necessary to achieve the level of housing price decline. If the decline in real estate investment will further betray the decline in manufacturing investment, in more or less layers, house prices must be very stable in 2017, and the government must precisely control house price increases.
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